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Weekly archive

Historical insights

Review prior weekly signals from the United States and Japan, preserved with their original official sources.

Week –

United States

U.S. Construction Spending Rises as Data-Center-Linked Office Work Leads

U.S. construction spending reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.203 trillion in August, up 0.9% from July but down 1.7% from a year earlier. Private office construction, which includes data centers, rose 4.6% for the month and 29.8% over the year, while commercial and manufacturing construction remained below year-earlier levels. The total monthly increase was not statistically significant and the preliminary figures remain subject to revision.

Real Estate and Data-Center Investment Help Lift U.S. Q2 GDP Estimate to 2.2%

The third estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annual rate, up from the prior 1.5% estimate. Real estate and rental and leasing was among the leading industry contributors, while the investment revision partly reflected nonresidential structures including data centers and residential improvements. This is a backward-looking, annualized estimate that incorporates broad revisions and does not measure current-quarter conditions.

U.S. Awards $426.7 Million to 12 Freight and Highway Projects

The U.S. Department of Transportation awarded $426.7 million to 12 freight and highway projects across 12 states. Several projects improve links to ports, airports, industrial hubs, and logistics corridors, including routes serving Savannah and the St. Louis airport area. The awards may support industrial and logistics locations, but they do not mean construction will begin immediately; design, permitting, local funding, and procurement still affect delivery.

Japan

Japan August Housing Starts Rise 6.1% as Monthly Pace Moderates

Japan recorded 63,974 housing starts in August, up 6.1% from a year earlier for a fifth consecutive increase. Rental starts rose 6.5% and homes built for sale rose 6.4%, but the seasonally adjusted annual rate fell 2.7% from July to 753,000 units. Housing starts measure construction activity entering the pipeline, not sales or completions, and the annual increase followed a weak comparison base.

Private Orders at Japan’s 50 Major Contractors Fall for Sixth Month

Orders received by 50 major contractors totaled ¥1.439 trillion in August, down 3.6% from a year earlier. Private orders fell 10.6% for a sixth consecutive decline, while public orders rose 46.3%; factories, power plants, and lodging showed strength as offices and logistics facilities weakened. The survey covers only 50 large contractors, and monthly results can be moved by a small number of major contracts.

Japan Corporate Existing-Building Transaction Index Rises 8.7%

Japan’s seasonally adjusted corporate transaction-volume index for existing buildings rose 8.7% in June to 293.1, with residential property up 6.1% and nonresidential property up 13.1%. The trial index is based on ownership-transfer registrations and measures transaction volume rather than prices, transaction value, cap rates, or net investment. The data were released with a three-month lag, and one month does not establish a sustained recovery.

Week –

United States

August New-Home Sales Estimate Rises, Inventory Holds at 8.5 Months

U.S. new single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July, while 483,000 homes were for sale, equal to 8.5 months of supply. The monthly increase was not statistically significant because its ±19.5 percentage-point margin of error exceeded the estimate, and the report covers only newly built single-family homes.

Enterprise Serious Delinquency Rate Holds at 0.59% in the Second Quarter

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac completed 48,439 foreclosure-prevention actions in Q2 2026. Their 60-day-plus delinquency rate edged up from 0.81% to 0.83%, while serious delinquencies held at 0.59%; foreclosure starts rose 1.9% to 25,908. These figures cover only mortgages serviced by the two Enterprises and should not be treated as a measure of the entire U.S. mortgage market.

Bank Commercial Real Estate Loan Balances Reach $3.14 Trillion

Commercial banks held $3.136 trillion in commercial real estate loans in the week ending September 16, including $459.1 billion in construction and land development loans, $641.9 billion in multifamily loans, and $1.912 trillion in nonfarm nonresidential loans. The Federal Reserve’s H.8 data measure outstanding bank loan balances, not new originations, approval rates, pricing, or an easing of credit standards; nonbank lending is excluded.

Japan

JFTC Acts on Bid Coordination in Kanto Condominium Repair Projects

The Japan Fair Trade Commission issued cease-and-desist and surcharge payment orders concerning coordinated bidding for large-scale condominium repairs procured through design consultants in the Kanto region. One case involved 36 contractors and a consulting firm, but the findings concern specific Kanto projects and companies and should not be generalized to Japan’s entire condominium repair market.

Construction Labor Shortage Rate Edges Up to 1.3% in August

Japan’s surveyed construction labor shortage rate rose to 1.3% in August, from 1.2% in July and 0.9% a year earlier, indicating modestly tighter staffing conditions. The survey covers only eight specified trades, while respondents still rated their worker availability outlook for October and November as “normal,” tempering conclusions about a broad construction labor crisis.

Japan Drafts Expanded Flood-Mapping Method for Sediment and Driftwood Risks

After four expert meetings, Japan’s transport ministry compiled a draft revision for mapping flood zones along small rivers that incorporates water-level rises and inundation caused by sediment and driftwood. The proposal could improve site-risk assessment, but it remains a draft technical guide and is not an enacted nationwide development restriction or a prohibition on building in mapped areas.

Week –

United States

Fed Raises Target Rate to 3.75%–4.00%

On September 16, the FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. The policy rate is not a mortgage or commercial property loan rate, so actual financing costs will also depend on longer-term yields, credit spreads, and borrower risk.

August Housing Starts Ease as Single-Family Construction Rises

August housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million, down 2.6% from July, while single-family starts rose 7.6% to 918,000. The reported changes carry margins of error of ±12.0 and ±14.0 percentage points, respectively, so neither establishes a clear one-month trend.

$5 Billion Available in 2026 New Markets Tax Credit Allocations

The CDFI Fund opened the 2026 New Markets Tax Credit round with $5 billion in allocation authority; investors may claim credits totaling 39% of a qualified equity investment over seven years. The $5 billion is tax credit allocation authority—not a cash grant or an immediate commitment to individual real estate projects.

Japan

Bank of Japan Raises Policy Rate to 1.25%

The Bank of Japan voted 7–2 to raise its target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate from around 1.0% to around 1.25%, effective September 24. The BOJ nevertheless assessed financial conditions as accommodative, so the decision should not be characterized as an immediate credit crunch.

Japan’s Older Population Reaches 29.6% as Senior Employment Hits 9.43 Million

Japan’s population aged 65 or older reached 36.24 million, or a record 29.6% of the total, while the number of employed people in this age group rose for a 22nd consecutive year to a record 9.43 million. These are nationwide aggregates and do not by themselves establish housing demand or absorption in any particular city.

Japan Sets Spring 2029 Target for BIM-Based Building Reviews

Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism released a basic framework targeting spring 2029 for introducing BIM data into building confirmation and inspection reviews, including view-based review and digital assistance using AI or software. The document is a roadmap rather than a current mandate, and the review items to be covered still require prioritization and further study.

Week –

United States

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac opened VantageScore 4.0 to all approved lenders

Approved lenders may now use VantageScore 4.0 for eligible loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without prior written approval. Classic FICO remains available, and the change does not guarantee loan approval or lower borrowing costs.

U.S. inflation held at 3.4% as shelter costs rose 3.0% over the year

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Shelter increased 0.3% for the month and 3.0% over the year, providing context for financing decisions without predicting the Federal Reserve's next move.

U.S. household real-estate value rose by about $1.1 trillion in the second quarter

Federal Reserve accounts put household real estate at about $49.8 trillion, up roughly $1.1 trillion from the first quarter, while mortgage borrowing picked up. Aggregate asset gains do not show local liquidity, affordability, or how wealth is distributed.

Japan

Japan land prices rose for a fifth year as regional momentum diverged

The July 1 prefectural land-price survey covered 21,466 locations and showed a fifth consecutive annual rise across all uses, residential land and commercial land. Gains widened in Tokyo and Osaka, while Nagoya and the four major regional cities slowed, underscoring the need for market-specific analysis.

Japan's securitized property assets reached approximately ¥73.4 trillion

Securitized real estate and trust-beneficiary interests were estimated at about ¥73.4 trillion at fiscal year-end. REITs and specified joint real-estate ventures acquired roughly ¥2.8 trillion and disposed of ¥1.1 trillion during the year; the total is an estimated asset stock, not annual transaction volume.

Japan set April 2027 start for enhanced energy rules for major housing suppliers

Japan will introduce its upper-tier housing Top Runner framework on April 1, 2027. Annual thresholds are 2,000 units for major built-for-sale, condominium and custom-home suppliers, and 15,000 units for rental-apartment contractors, bringing designated firms into planning and annual reporting requirements.

Week –

United States

Mortgage rates reached 6.71% while purchase demand held relatively steady

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.66% to 6.71%. Freddie Mac said purchase demand remained relatively stable, although affordability pressures have not disappeared.

U.S. added 162,000 jobs as real-estate employment showed a mixed picture

August payrolls rose by 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. Real-estate employment fell by 3,200, while architectural and engineering services added 2,200 jobs.

Illinois expanded a public investment path for affordable housing

A new state law permits investment in a housing trust focused on affordable and workforce housing. The approach is an Illinois policy case, not a nationwide shift.

Japan

Japan's bank lending grew 5.4% as credit activity remained resilient

Average loans at major, regional, and shinkin banks rose 5.4% year over year in August. The aggregate does not mean every property borrower receives the same financing terms.

United States · Japan

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